Economic analysis indicates that the U.S. economy appears to be strengthening with a revised forecast for GDP growth at 3.6 percent for the third quarter of last year, according to the latest U.S. Travel Outlook. While the growth was expected to slow somewhat in Q4, the second half of 2013 should end up with an average of 2 percent growth from the previous year. Supporting this growth is strength in employment, consumer confidence and household spending.
Leisure travel in 2013 is expected to have ended the year on a positive note with a slight increase in travel volume for the holiday period. AAA forecasts that 94.5 million travelers will have traveled at least 50 miles away from home during the 2013 holidays. Travel volume for the entire year is estimated to have increased 1.4 percent in 2013 to nearly 2.1 billion travelers. Leisure travelers account for 78 percent of that total, with an estimated 1.6 billion travelers (+1.9 percent from 2012).
Business travel remains soft and is forecasted to have increased less than one percent in 2013 from the previous year. While exhibiting slow growth recent research by MMGY shows that business travel intentions are increasing with 20 percent of U.S. adults planning to take at least on business trip in the next six months.
The meetings sector continues to lag leisure and general business travel growth. The good news, however, is that many companies have already made their budget cuts for travel and are only planning to make minor adjustments in 2014. Meeting demand is expected to increase, but controlling travel costs remains a concern and a primary influencer of this indicator. With that in mind, non-traditional facilities are expected to see increases in popularity in 2014.
The U.S. lodging sector continues to post strong numbers. October demand increased 1.5 percent and November demand increased 2.8 percent. Recent North Carolina lodging data can be found here.
Employment figures are encouraging. The Bureau of Labor Statistics have reported that the economy added more than 200,000 jobs in November, and during the last four months has averaged a net of 204,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 7 percent in November.
The positive economic news appears to be having an effect on consumer spending. U.S. retails sales increased nearly one percent in November, the largest gain in five months. Year-over-year sales are up nearly 5 percent. Holiday sales were expected to grow 4 percent from 2012. Internet shopping has performed even better. According to ComScore Inc., Cyber Monday sales rose 20 percent from 2012.